Bitcoin’s market cycles are not anchored around its halving events as widely believed, according to analyst James Check, who said other factors drive bull and bear cycles.
“In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings,” Check said on Wednesday, referring to the blockchain’s cutting of mining rewards that typically occur every four years.
He said that market cycles are anchored around the “trends in adoption and market structure,” with the market’s 2017 peak and 2022 bottom being transition points.
Check highlighted the three previous cycles as an “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, driven by retail early adoption, an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022, driven by “Wild West boom and bust with leverage,” and the current “maturity cycle” from 2022 onward, driven by “institutional maturity and stability.”
He said, “Things changed after the 2022 bear market, and folks who assume the past will repeat likely miss the signal because they are looking at the historical noise.”
Bitcoin’s price (black) compared to James Check’s take on the cryptocurrency’s market cycles. Source: James Check
Halving cycle theory still on track
Check’s analysis goes against the popular theory that Bitcoin market cycles typically span four years and are anchored by its halving events, which induce a supply shock due to the decreased block rewards and greater demand.
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